Get injury alerts and waiver tips before anyone else.
Home › NFL › 2026 Team Outlooks › Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Outlook 2026
By Sean Draper · Published September 15, 2026 · Last updated November 3, 2026 · Updated Tuesdays and Fridays through the season
Buffalo is the cleanest target tree in football and the most misread one. Keon Coleman is rostered in about 3% of leagues, Joshua Palmer is a name on a depth chart, and everything this offence produces now runs through exactly three men — which sounds like a reason to buy all three and is not. The quarterback everyone is paying a third-round pick for just posted six-year lows in passing yards, passing touchdowns and fantasy points per game, and stayed QB1 purely on fourteen rushing scores. The running back going in the first round has the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL. And the cheapest of the three, a tight end going at TE10, produced 2.83 yards per route run — third among every qualified pass-catcher in football — while on the field for barely a third of the snaps. One of those three is priced wrong in your favour. All ranks and scoring on this page are 0.5 PPR unless stated otherwise.
Bills fantasy cheat sheet
| Player | Pos | Where he’s going | Our verdict | Injury risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE10, Underdog ADP 120.1 | Draft — top-eight tight end, the best value on this roster | Questionable (ribs), unchanged as of Oct. 27 |
| Josh Allen | QB | QB1 on every platform, Underdog ADP 37.1 | Draft — but know you are buying rushing touchdowns | Low |
| James Cook | RB | RB5, Underdog ADP 10.1 — a first-round pick | Draft, at a discount — the schedule is a real tax | Moderate (349 opportunities in 2025) |
| D.J. Moore | WR | WR27, Underdog ADP 52.8 | Draft as a WR3, not the WR2 the trade implied | Out (shoulder) through the Week 7 bye, unchanged as of Oct. 27 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | WR56, Underdog ADP 131.2 | Fade at cost — volume without air yards | Low |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR87, Underdog ADP 211.9 | Drop — one catch for one yard in the opener | Low (foot and toe resolved) |
| Ray Davis | RB | RB57, Underdog ADP 187.0 | Handcuff only — and the handcuff that matters most | Low |
| Joshua Palmer | WR | No stable published ADP | Ignore in redraft — a one-catch game-winner is not a role | No designation, unchanged as of Oct. 27 (cleared the shoulder injury) |
| Bills D/ST | — | Unranked on our board | Stream in the right weeks; do not roster | — |
The one-line version: draft Dalton Kincaid as a top-eight tight end at a TE10 price, pay for James Cook knowing you are also buying the league’s hardest remaining schedule, treat D.J. Moore as a WR3, and drop Keon Coleman today.
The backfield: a genuine bellcow with a calendar problem
James Cook led the NFL in rushing last season with 1,621 yards on 309 carries and 14 rushing touchdowns, at a career-high 5.2 yards a carry and 18.8 PPR points a game. Buffalo made no offseason addition to challenge him, he signed a four-year, $48-million extension back in August 2025 that runs through 2029, and he has missed two games in his career. There is no committee, no contract overhang and no injury history. That is about as clean as a first-round running back gets.
One number to be careful with: FantasyPros’ player page lists Cook at 1,820 rushing yards for 2025. CBS Sports, Draft Sharks and Fantasy Six Pack all publish 1,621 on 309 carries. We are going with 1,621 because three independent outlets agree on it, and flagging the discrepancy rather than quietly picking the prettier number.
Two things stop this being a simple draft-him-and-forget-him. The first is receiving work: only 40 targets and under 300 receiving yards in a 349-opportunity season. The staff has said publicly it wants to expand that role, and it is the single largest lever on his ceiling — but it has been said before. The second is the schedule. FantasyPros grades Cook’s remaining slate the hardest in the NFL, 32nd of 32, with the fantasy-playoff stretch 29th-easiest. You are paying an RB5 price for a workload nobody disputes attached to the worst strength-of-schedule tail at the position.
Ray Davis is the handcuff worth actually owning. He took 16.9% of the backfield usage across 215 snaps last year, has caught 27 of 32 career targets and scored eight times on 198 touches. Pro Football Network calls him “strictly a handcuff and nothing more,” which is true and is also the point: on a team with one back and 349 opportunities to redistribute, the handcuff to a genuine bellcow is worth more than a fifth receiver. Ty Johnson is the third back.
Our verdict: draft Cook, but let somebody else reach. If he is there at the back of round one he is fine; if the room is pushing him into the top six picks on last year’s rushing title, let it. And if you take him, take Davis.
Target share: three men, and the screen game that flatters one of them
Buffalo traded a 2026 second-round pick to Chicago in March for D.J. Moore, and the fantasy world read it as the arrival of a true WR1 — the first since Stefon Diggs. The receiving room is now Moore, Khalil Shakir in the slot, Joshua Palmer, and a Keon Coleman who is rostered almost nowhere.
| D.J. Moore | Khalil Shakir | Keon Coleman | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 line | 50 rec, 682 yds, 6 TD (Chicago) | 72 rec, 719 yds — team leader in catches | 38 rec, 404 yds, 50.9% catch rate |
| The efficiency tell | 24%-plus target share every year 2019–24, then a career low | 9.6 yards per reception; led the NFL in receiving yards off screens (173) | WR105 rest-of-season on FantasyPros; ~3% rostered |
| Week 1 | 5 rec, 100 yds, 1 TD | 2 rec, 35 yds | 1 rec, 1 yd |
| ADP | 52.8 (WR27) | 131.2 (WR56) | 211.9 (WR87) |
| Our verdict | Draft as a WR3 | Fade at cost | Drop |
The bull case on Moore is real and it is a coaching case: he played for Joe Brady in Carolina in 2020 and 2021 and went for 1,193 yards at 18.1 a catch in the first of those years. Brady is now the head coach. Sports Illustrated projects 80-plus catches and 1,000 yards. Fantasy Six Pack calls him a straight fade. That is a genuine, unresolved split among people who do this for a living, and a 100-yard opener does not settle it.
Our read splits the difference and lands closer to the fade, for a reason neither camp leans on: Brady’s offence manufactures targets rather than air yards. Shakir led the entire league in receiving yards off screens last season and still finished WR33 in points per game on 72 catches, because 9.6 yards a reception is what a screen diet produces. If that structure persists under Brady as head coach — and Yahoo’s Christian D’Andrea flagged exactly this, noting the receiver corps ranks 23rd in the league — then Moore’s target share will look healthy and his yardage will not. Draft him where a WR3 goes, not where the trade headline said.
Coleman is the informative drop. A healthy 23-year-old second-round pick, off the boot, listed as a starter, rostered in 3% of leagues after one catch for one yard. That is not a failure to notice him — it is Buffalo telling you the targets have fully consolidated into three players. That concentration raises the floor for the three who matter and removes the “somebody emerges” tail risk that usually makes a Bills receiver a bad bet.
Josh Allen: what the QB1 price is actually buying
Allen is QB1 on all seven platforms FantasyPros tracks, QB1 on Underdog at an ADP of 37.1, and he opened 2026 by throwing for 334 yards with two passing touchdowns and running for two more. None of that is in dispute. What is worth saying out loud is what the price is attached to.
In 2025 Allen posted six-year lows in passing yards per game (215.8), passing touchdowns (25) and fantasy points per game (22.0) across 16 games, on a 69.3% completion rate and 3,668 yards. He was QB1 anyway because he ran for 579 yards and fourteen touchdowns — a third straight double-digit rushing-score season against a five-year average of 10.8. He has not had a 900-yard receiver since Diggs left after 2023.
So the stable half of his profile is declining and the volatile half is carrying him. Rushing touchdowns are the single noisiest repeatable stat in fantasy football; a regression from fourteen to ten costs roughly 24 points and drops him into a pack of quarterbacks going four rounds later. We are not telling you to fade the position’s best player. We are telling you that at pick 37 you are buying a category with enormous year-to-year variance, and that the argument for taking him there gets weaker every year the passing line slides.
Our verdict: draft him if he falls to you; do not reach past the third round for him. The one genuine bull case nobody is pricing is on the other side of the ball — see the forecast below.
Dalton Kincaid: the snap-rate arbitrage of the season
Here is the whole argument in two numbers. Kincaid produced 2.83 yards per route run, third among every qualified pass-catcher in the NFL — not third among tight ends, third overall — on a snap rate of 37.6%. Almost nobody in football is that efficient on that little playing time, and a player being that efficient on that little playing time is the most reliably mispriced thing in fantasy football, because ADP is built from counting stats.
His 2025 line is disputed at the edges — Fantasy Football Calculator has 36 catches for 523 yards, RotoBaller 39 for 571 — but both agree on twelve games and five touchdowns, and both are the output of a part-time role. Buffalo exercised his fifth-year option through 2027. Dawson Knox re-signed through 2028 and still eats snaps, which is the honest counterargument and the reason this is not free money.
Then Week 1: five catches for 130 yards on a team-leading target share, on a 77% snap share. One game is one game. But it is the specific game you would want to see if the thesis were about to be true, and Sports Illustrated has already sketched the ceiling — 80 catches, 1,000 yards and ten scores if he gets to 65% of the snaps.
Where we differed from our own board — and where the board has now moved. Our Week 1 rankings had Dalton Kincaid at TE15, which was a fair reading of a 37.6% snap rate and twelve games of part-time work. This page says top-eight, and we wanted that gap on the record rather than left for a reader to trip over. That gap has since closed from the other side: our Week 2 board had him at TE6, citing the 77% Week 1 snap share — the exact number this page was betting on. FantasyPros’ expert panel moved with it, to TE6 in a range of TE3 to TE9. We are recording that as the board coming to this page rather than this page being vindicated by one game: if the snap rate falls back into the thirties we are still wrong, and we will grade it that way in December.
Our verdict: draft him at TE10 and expect a top-eight finish. This is the call on this page we most want to be graded on.
Injury watch
The table below updates automatically from our status feed and editorial desk. As of Tue, Nov. 3, James Cook has picked up a Questionable tag — his first appearance on the injury report all season. D.J. Moore has been upgraded from Out to Questionable as the shoulder continues to heal. Dalton Kincaid has cleared the rib injury that had him questionable through October and carries no designation into Week 8. Joshua Palmer, who had cleared his earlier shoulder issue, now shows up Out with a hamstring injury. Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman all carry no designation, and Ray Davis is off the injury report entirely. Tyrell Shavers remains on the physically-unable-to-perform list and is not a lineup consideration.
| Player | Pos | Status | Injury | Practice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III | RB | Questionable | Undisclosed | — |
| DJ Moore | WR | Questionable | Undisclosed | — |
| Skyler Bell | WR | Out | Coach's Decision | — |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | PUP | Knee – ACL | — |
| Joshua Palmer | WR | Out | Hamstring | — |
Statuses updated . Status data: Sleeper.
Buffalo Bills defense vs. position: fantasy points allowed
| Position | Pts / game | Rank | Week over week | Season trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. Quarterbacks | 19.0 | 11 | ▼ 7 -3.3 | Getting better (L3 15.3) |
| vs. Running Backs | 27.4 | 3 | ● 0 -0.9 | Steady (L3 26.8) |
| vs. Wide Receivers | 37.1 | 5 | ▼ 4 -5.3 | Getting better (L3 31.8) |
| vs. Tight Ends | 14.1 | 13 | ▼ 1 -1.2 | Getting worse (L3 17.8) |
| vs. Kickers | 6.4 | 26 | ▼ 4 -0.6 | Steady (L3 5.7) |
| Bills offense vs. opposing D/ST | 3.9 | 26 | ▼ 1 -0.3 | Getting better (L3 2.0) |
Opponents should attack the Bills with running backs (3rd), wide receivers (5th). The Bills have shut down kickers (26th). Compare all 32 teams in the defense vs. position rankings.
Buffalo Bills snap counts, carries and targets
Every Bills running back, receiver, tight end and quarterback by week. Switch between snap share, carries and targets; teal marks the latest game.
| Pos | Player | Wk 1–8 | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 | Wk 8 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Josh Allen | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | -5 | |
| RB | James Cook Questionable · Undisclosed | 72% | 74% | 67% | 59% | 62% | 66% | 54% | -13 | |
| RB | Ty Johnson | – | – | 23% | 32% | 22% | 18% | 24% | 0 | |
| RB | Ray Davis | 9% | 14% | 8% | 7% | 16% | 13% | 21% | +10 | |
| RB | Frank Gore Jr. | 19% | 12% | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| WR | Keon Coleman | 50% | 74% | 48% | 78% | 70% | 85% | 77% | +10 | |
| WR | Khalil Shakir | 53% | 49% | 73% | 76% | 69% | 60% | 67% | +4 | |
| WR | D.J. Moore Questionable · Undisclosed | 76% | 31% | 64% | 39% | – | – | 66% | +14 | |
| WR | Josh Palmer | 31% | 38% | 32% | 59% | – | 25% | 9% | -28 | |
| WR | Skyler Bell Out · Coach's Decision | – | – | – | – | 61% | 44% | – | – | |
| TE | Dawson Knox | 67% | 76% | 70% | 61% | 70% | 69% | 70% | +1 | |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | 72% | 66% | 67% | 59% | 70% | 72% | 57% | -11 | |
| TE | Jackson Hawes | 43% | 50% | 38% | 24% | 44% | 37% | 39% | 0 |
Data: nflverse, updated Tue, Nov 3 at 11:12 am EST. See who gained and lost work across the league in the NFL Workload Report, or track your own roster with My Players.
Report current as of Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The table above refreshes automatically from our status feed.
Team forecast: why we have Buffalo at 11–6
Fantasy production depends on game script, and game script depends on whether this team is winning. We scanned sixteen independent projections. The consensus lands just under eleven wins and we are essentially on it — which means the interesting disagreement on this page is not about the number at all. It is about the shape.
| Source | Type | Wins | Finish / Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report | Analyst | 12–5 | Over 10.5 |
| Bailey Bassett, ClutchPoints | Analyst | 12–5 | Loses in the wild-card round |
| TheOddsBreakers | Analyst | 12–5 | Market line 10.5 (O −160 / U +130) |
| John Breech, CBS Sports | Analyst | 11–6 | 4 seed; loses the wild card to Cincinnati |
| Iain MacMillan, SI Betting | Analyst | “11 wins or better” | Over 10.5 |
| Yahoo Sports / USA TODAY List Wire | Analyst | 11–6 | Down from 12–5 in 2025 |
| PFF season model | Model | 10.82 | Modest value on the Over |
| FTN — Aaron Schatz DVOA | Model | 10.1 | Offence 3rd (+12.1%), defence 14th (−0.7%); 71.8% playoffs |
| CBS Sports simulation | Model | 10–7 | AFC East champion, 4 seed, 52.4% division odds |
| PrizePicks | Model | 10–7 | 10-plus wins pays 1.38x |
| DraftKings (via CBS Sports) | Market | 10.5 | Over −120 / Under +100 |
| FanDuel | Market | 10.5 | Over −130 / Under +110 |
| BetMGM | Market | 10.5 | Over −145 — the book’s own lean is the Over |
| Fanatics Sportsbook | Market | 10.5 | House lean: Over |
| TheLines market survey | Market | 10.5 | Over −125 |
| Christian D’Andrea, Yahoo / For The Win | Analyst | — | QB 5th, TE 9th, RB 11th, receiver corps 23rd |
| This site | Our call | 11–6 | 1st, AFC East — AFC No. 2 seed |
Why the number is boring and the shape is not. Eleven wins is the market, near enough. What we are actually claiming is three things the board does not say. First, Buffalo wins the AFC East. Second, it takes the No. 2 seed out of a three-way tie at 11–6 with Baltimore and Denver. Third, and this is the uncomfortable one: Buffalo wins the division while being swept by New England.
The seeding, worked through, because a three-way tie is where these pages usually go wrong. No club sweeps the other two — Baltimore beat Buffalo at Highmark in Week 8, Buffalo won at Denver on Christmas Day, and Baltimore and Denver do not play each other — so the head-to-head step does not resolve it and Baltimore takes the top seed on the conference-record step, which is the position our Ravens page has already staked out. Once one club is placed, the league’s procedure reverts the remaining two to the two-club tiebreaker, and that starts at head-to-head. Buffalo beat Denver. So Buffalo is the No. 2 seed and Denver the No. 3.
We are going to say the New England part out loud rather than hope nobody checks. We have the Patriots beating Buffalo in Week 4 at Highmark and again in Week 13 at Gillette, and we still have Buffalo first at 11–6 and New England second at 10–7. That is legal — both finish 4–2 in the division and the Bills simply win one more game overall, so the head-to-head tiebreaker never gets invoked. It is also the kind of thing that happens in real seasons and reads as an error when it is not. If New England steals one more game anywhere, the sweep decides the division and our seeding collapses. It is the single most fragile claim on this page.
The change nobody is pricing is on defence. Everyone has treated the coaching upheaval as continuity: Sean McDermott fired in January after a fourth failure to reach a Super Bowl in five years, Joe Brady promoted from coordinator, Allen’s offence preserved. Fine. But the quieter move was Jim Leonhard replacing Bobby Babich as defensive coordinator on a unit that lost Matt Milano, Jordan Poyer, Matthew Judon, DaQuan Jones, Tre’Davious White and Taron Johnson in a single offseason and that Aaron Schatz’s model now grades 14th, at −0.7% DVOA, against an offence third at +12.1%. Bradley Chubb and C.J. Gardner-Johnson are real additions; they are not six starters.
An offence third and a defence fourteenth produces more shootouts than the market’s 10.5 assumes. That is quietly bullish for Allen and Moore, quietly bearish for Cook’s fourth-quarter carry volume, and it is the best available argument for paying up for Allen despite everything we wrote above about his passing decline. The other unresolved question is the left guard — Alec Anderson against Austin Corbett, with Lloyd Cushenberry III also signed — the one genuine vacancy on the most stable offensive line in football.
Game-by-game, and what it means for your lineup
| Wk | Opponent | Site | Pick | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Texans | Away | L — graded: miss | 0–1 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | Home · TNF | L | 0–2 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Chargers | Home | W | 1–2 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | Home | L | 1–3 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Rams | Away · MNF | W | 2–3 |
| 6 | Las Vegas Raiders | Away | W | 3–3 |
| 7 | Bye | — | — | 3–3 |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | Home | L | 3–4 |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | Away · MNF | W | 4–4 |
| 10 | New York Jets | Away | W | 5–4 |
| 11 | Miami Dolphins | Home | W | 6–4 |
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs | Home · Thanksgiving | W | 7–4 |
| 13 | New England Patriots | Away | L | 7–5 |
| 14 | Green Bay Packers | Away · SNF | W | 8–5 |
| 15 | Chicago Bears | Home · Saturday | L | 8–6 |
| 16 | Denver Broncos | Away · Christmas Day | W | 9–6 |
| 17 | Miami Dolphins | Away | W | 10–6 |
| 18 | New York Jets | Home | W | 11–6 |
- Weeks 1–4 were the hardest month any contender drew. Houston, Detroit, the Chargers and New England — our sheet had Buffalo 1–3 across it, and the Bills went 3–1 instead.
- Week 7 bye — early, and that is a cost, not a perk. Only Miami’s Week 6 comes sooner in the AFC East. An early bye means you carry Buffalo players through the entire fantasy playoff stretch with no scheduled relief, which matters most if you own both Allen and Cook.
- Weeks 15–17 — the stretch is better than it looks on paper. Chicago at home on a Saturday is our one loss; then Denver on Christmas Day and Miami on the road are both wins on our board, and the Miami game in Week 17 is championship week for most leagues. Start every Bill you own in Week 17.
- The counterintuitive one: Buffalo is 7–2 on the road and 4–4 at home on our board, which is the inverse of how everyone drafts this team. Highmark in December is treated as an automatic edge and the schedule does not cooperate — the home slate is Detroit, New England, Baltimore, Kansas City and Chicago, while the road slate is the Jets twice, Miami, Las Vegas and a Rams team playing a Monday nighter. If you are setting a lineup on venue, you have it backwards.
Frequently asked
Should I draft Dalton Kincaid in 2026?
Yes — take him at his TE10 price and expect a top-eight finish. Kincaid produced 2.83 yards per route run last season, third among every qualified pass-catcher in the NFL, on a snap rate of just 37.6%. That combination — elite per-route production in a part-time role — is the most reliably mispriced profile in fantasy, because ADP is built on counting stats. He opened 2026 with five catches for 130 yards on a team-leading target share and a 77% snap share. The risk is Dawson Knox, signed through 2028, pulling that back into the thirties. Our Week 1 board had him TE15 and our Week 2 board moved him to TE6.
Is Josh Allen still the QB1 in fantasy football?
He is QB1 by ADP on every platform and he is going at pick 37 on Underdog, and we would draft him there if he fell. But understand the purchase: in 2025 Allen hit six-year lows in passing yards per game (215.8), passing touchdowns (25) and fantasy points per game (22.0), and finished QB1 on the strength of fourteen rushing touchdowns. Rushing scores are the noisiest repeatable stat at the position. A drop from fourteen to ten is roughly 24 points and puts him back in a pack of quarterbacks drafted four rounds later. Do not reach past round three.
Is D.J. Moore a WR1 in Buffalo?
No — we have him as a WR3, which is roughly his WR27 ADP and one tier below what the trade headline implied. The bull case is genuine: Moore played for Joe Brady in Carolina in 2020 and posted 1,193 yards at 18.1 a catch, Brady is now the head coach, and Moore opened with 5 catches for 100 yards and a score. The bear case is structural. This offence manufactures targets rather than air yards — Khalil Shakir led the NFL in receiving yards off screens last year and still finished WR33 in points per game. Sports Illustrated projects 80 catches and 1,000 yards; Fantasy Six Pack calls him a fade. We land nearer the fade.
Should I drop Keon Coleman?
Yes, in any twelve-team league. Coleman is healthy — the foot and toe sprain is resolved and he is listed as a starter — and he still caught one pass for one yard in Week 1 after a 38-catch, 404-yard 2025 at a 50.9% catch rate. FantasyPros has him WR105 rest-of-season and he is rostered in roughly 3% of leagues. The useful signal is not about Coleman: it is that Buffalo has consolidated its targets into Moore, Kincaid and Shakir, which raises the floor for all three.
Will the Bills win the AFC East in 2026?
We have them winning it at 11–6 and taking the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Buffalo, Baltimore and Denver all finish 11–6 on our board; nobody sweeps the other two, so Baltimore takes the top seed on conference record, and the remaining pair reverts to the two-club tiebreaker, which starts at head-to-head — Buffalo won at Denver on Christmas Day, so the Bills are second and the Broncos third. The market agrees on the number — the consensus across the fifteen projections that published one is 10.83 wins — and CBS’s simulation gives Buffalo 52.4% division odds. The awkward part we are not hiding: we also have New England sweeping Buffalo in Weeks 4 and 13 and still finishing second at 10–7. Both teams go 4–2 in the division, so the head-to-head tiebreaker never applies. It is the most fragile claim on this page.
When is the Bills bye week in 2026?
Week 7 — the second-earliest in the AFC East behind Miami’s Week 6, and earlier than both New England and the Jets. For fantasy that is a mild negative rather than a perk: an early bye means you carry your Bills through the whole playoff stretch with no scheduled week off, which is most awkward if you own both Josh Allen and James Cook. Buffalo goes into it off a road game in Las Vegas and comes out at home against Baltimore.
Prediction tracker
Updated every Tuesday. Last update: November 3, 2026 — still six games graded, and we are 4 of 6; Week 8 has not kicked off yet, so there is no new pick to grade this cycle. We had the Bills losing at Houston (they won 36–31) and losing to Detroit at home (they won 41–31) — both wrong — then got Week 3 right (Bills 24, Chargers 16), Week 4 right (New England beating Buffalo at home, as our sheet called it), Week 5 right (Bills 37, Rams 34, on the road) and Week 6 right as well (Bills 33, Raiders 30). Buffalo is still 5–1 through six games, two games ahead of our own game log’s 3–3 cumulative call at this point, even though four of our six individual picks have now landed correctly. The 11–6 call stays as published rather than being quietly revised; we mark misses, we do not re-cut them.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team record | 11–6 | 5–1 through 6 games (Week 7 was a bye, so no new game to add) | Comfortably ahead of pace — an 11-win season implies roughly 3.9 wins by now, and two wins ahead of our own game-by-game sheet’s 3–3 |
| AFC East finish | 1st | — | Too early |
| Division record | 4–2 | 0–1 — lost the Week 4 home game to New England | On script — our sheet had that loss |
| AFC seed | 2 | — | Too early |
| Kincaid positional finish | Top-eight TE | — | Too early — season-long metric |
| Kincaid snap rate | Above 50% | — | Too early — season-long metric |
| Allen rushing touchdowns | Under 14 | — | Too early — season-long metric |
| Moore finishes as a WR3 or worse | Yes | — | Too early — season-long metric |
| Games called correctly | — | 4 of 6 | — |
Keep going
- Fantasy rankings — where Josh Allen, James Cook, D.J. Moore and Dalton Kincaid sit on our current board
- Start/Sit calls — including the D.J. Moore lean we revisit above
- 2026 team fantasy outlooks — every team we have written up so far
- Baltimore Ravens fantasy outlook — 11–6 and the AFC’s No. 1 seed, beating Buffalo at Highmark in Week 8
- Denver Broncos fantasy outlook — the third team in the 11–6 tie, and the No. 3 seed behind Buffalo on the head-to-head Buffalo won on Christmas Day
- Kansas City Chiefs fantasy outlook — 9–8 and out, losing in Buffalo on Thanksgiving
- Live injury report — where any of this changes between Tuesdays
- Our track record — every call we make against consensus, graded after the games
Sources: BuffaloBills.com, ESPN, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Sports Illustrated, SI Betting, Bills Central, NFL.com, Bleacher Report, ClutchPoints, TheOddsBreakers, PrizePicks, Yahoo Sports, USA TODAY List Wire, Pro Football Network, PFF, FTN Fantasy, FantasyPros, Fantasy Football Calculator, Fantasy Six Pack, Draft Sharks, Underdog via Sharp Football, Next Gen Stats via Sports Illustrated, WGR 550, BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics Sportsbook, TheLines, the NFL’s published tie-breaking procedures, Wikipedia. Odds, ADP and injury data current as of September 15, 2026. Analysis, not betting advice. This page is updated as news breaks; player statuses render live from our injury feed.